Would detection of an adverse cytogenetic marker such as dup(1q) alone in the setting of MGUS satisfy criteria for a diagnosis of multiple myeloma?

Short answer, no.

Longer answer -

The important transition between MGUS/SMM to MM is CRAB criteria (hypercalcemia, renal disease, anemia, bone lesions), OR the development of a myeloma defining events -- >60% clonal plasma cells on bone marrow, multiple lesions on MRI, or FLC ratio > 100. These myelom...